Goodwillwrites@yahoo.com

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Topics in this week's blog: WIPP; Tuesday primary turmoil; gerrymandering; school violence; world cup soccer; THE book tour; Iraq; incumbency; immigration; too big to fail?; Father's Day thoughts.

WIPP. The WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) near Carlsbad, NM, suffered an as yet unexplained accidental fire, 2,100 feet below the surface. WIPP was built to be the final disposal site for America's nuclear bomb-making waste. This idea is now in limbo and the fire raises questions about where to store our nuclear waste materials that future generations will have to live with.
     During the Cold War era, America was quick to condemn the USSR for its reckless, hurried, and unsafe exploitation of its satellite nations as their dumping grounds. Contamination was not a long-term concern for the Soviets; they simply folded and left. Now it is our turn to examine our long-term contamination problems.

VA Republican primary. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R, VA) was defeated in last Tuesday's primary by a more conservative, Tea Party-backed opponent, thus becoming the first majority leader to be defeated since the post was created in 1899. The repercussions, as yet unknown, will be substantial for the Republican party, nationally and locally. Cantor outspent his challenger 40-to-1 (reportedly $5.5M to $122,000), only to be defeated by a throw-in-the-towel-margin of 11%. Cantor and the Republican establishment felt secure with multiple polls that confidently predicted an easy victory; on Wednesday morning there may have been some pollsters experiencing job insecurity!
     In choosing Eric Cantor's replacement, FreedomWorks, a very right-leaning Republican group, avows "‘the next guy in line’ isn't entitled to the next rung on the ladder....[T]he American people have made it loud and clear that the status quo is not acceptable anymore- and Raúl Labrador is the man to make DC listen." Really, the "American people"? Or does "a very small minority of VA Republican voters" seem a better characterization?

The 'ole gerrymander... ain't what it used to be! As students of government know, the tradition of shaping election districts to benefit a particular political party originated in MA, aptly illustrated by the now iconic 1812 political cartoon in the Boston Gazette. The practice was first used to redraw the Massachusetts state senate election districts and was signed into law by Governor Elbridge Gerry, hence the slightly altered name. The practice quickly spread and its history in the US is much storied.
     Last Tuesday's defeat of Eric Cantor in VA highlights one major problem with this two-edged sword. The state legislature successfully gerrymandered its districts to help ensure the election of Republican candidates, but, viola, it also created another problem: the possible victory of a very narrowly-focused candidate (Democrat or Republican).
     Nationally, the Republican party acknowledges the need to garner more Hispanic votes, but gerrymandering by Republican-dominated state legislatures virtually insures the selection of very narrowly-based, conservative Republican candidates unlikely to appeal to many Hispanic voters. As this PBS story notes, the "Virginia problem" may be duplicated in other states. "[Republican] candidates will have to try and balance an activist base they need behind them and a changing demography in the country."

More school violence. Sadly, last Monday's school shooting in OR seems to make the following a terrible but increasingly apt analogy.

                    US : school shootings :: Middle East : sectarian violence.

An American public, inured to Middle East violence, now faces the same psychological prospect regarding home-grown school violence. There will be, of course, calls for stricter gun regulation and the NRA and its allies will, just as assuredly, call for more guns in more schools.

Brazil's lament. If all the indications are correct, the land of sun, sand, samba, happiness, and good soccer is not quite ready for the month-long world soccer summit. Soccer aficionados can only hope for the best. "Nothing encapsulates this sense of impending doom like the phrase "imagina na Copa," "imagine during the Cup."

On the road, again. Hillary's book tour surely sold some books, though how many "extras" is a matter of conjecture -- preaching to the choir and all. But, is there any doubt that, barring some totally unforeseen calamity, she will run for president? Looks more and more like a good bet. There are indications, though, the Chinese government, for one, is not terribly thrilled about the prospect of a President Hillary Clinton.

Iraq. Once in the forefront of the "war on terror" and from which the US has withdrawn, this very troubled nation is again dominating Middle East news. Sectarian warfare seems to have broken out anew. This linked map lays out Iraq's and nearby ethnic boundaries. Fighting forces from Syria and Iran have entered into the fighting, further complicating the already bloody sectarian picture. One can only say, "Stay tuned," and wonder if this analogy is too far fetched? And, if not, is there a possible Middle Eastern equivalent of a Good Friday Agreement!

Northern Ireland : protestant vs. Roman Catholic (a relatively small area)  ::
Iraq : Shiite vs. Sunni (an immense expanse)

One Washington Post writer questioned the wisdom of again becoming involved in the "millennium-old feuds between Sunni and Shia Muslims." A wise point, me thinks; one which begs the question of the Bush administration's initial decision to attack Iraq. A decision which, by the way, is causing more than a little back-and-forth for (former senator) Hillary Clinton, who voted for the invasion. A decision which may well cause the US to become engaged with Iran

The ABTI party.  This movement is gaining adherents: Anybody But The Incumbent. Voter unhappiness breeds discontent and leads to interesting, sometimes unpleasant, consequences.

Immigration. Speaking on last Sunday's "Face the Nation," Senator Lindsay Graham (R, SC) (a video) tried to lay out his vision of what the Republican party's position should be in November 2014 and 2016. In view of last week's Cantor debacle in VA, it is very unclear how much of the activist Republican base would support Graham's program. To some it might have sounded much like "his" position were he a presidential candidate in 2016.
     Graham also pointed out that by the year 2025, the US population (pp. 147+ of US Census report) would be less than 50% white, a frightening prospect for many whites, one which more extreme elements readily exploit.

Under water?  Hopefully your home mortgage did not go "underwater" in the last economic collapse. And, hopefully, neither did the mortgage of your nearest and dearest. In this video clip, Bill Moyers, to my mind, one of the leading voices of moderation in America, offers some thoughts.

Some thoughts for Father's Day. But, really, these thoughts could be from/by anyone who has lost a loved one.


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