Goodwillwrites@yahoo.com

Saturday, April 21, 2018

For this week: the Optimist; tax day and the Boston marathon; Starbucks, loitering, and lynching; the volcano in our backyard; Syria; 2020 candidate X; Trump's Republican party; an ignored, but not convenient past; real foreign policy?; North Korea; welfare reform, WI style; your dangerous car; reading, non-fiction; 

Optimist, 22 April. Full link here. Babies to the Senate floor? He is poor, but has a voice Juilliard wants and will provide for. And more.

The IRS calls late. At Sunday brunch, a friend asked why this year's tax filing deadline was the 17th. Alas, he's not a current or former runner. The third Monday in April marks the Patriot's Day holiday in MA (and also the date for the yearly Boston Marathon). In MA, banks, state, and local agencies are all shuttered. Well, what if IRS filing day, the 15th, falls on a Sunday and poor Joe Taxpayer in MA cannot get to his local bank on Monday the 16th? This is federalism at its finest. Because of MA and the calendar, everyone in the US got to file their taxes one day later! Did you use that day's extra interest wisely? Wikipedia link here.

The 2018 Boston Marathon. As sometimes happens on Marathon Monday in Boston, this year's weather was really "crappy!" Rain, wind, low temperatures, but, hey, at least there was no snow on the ground. Was it the weather? Or the marathon gods taking pity? Or some of the warm-weather East Africans opting out? Who can say. But, for the first time since 1985, an American woman won the women's elite race and eight of the top ten lady-finishers were also Americans. On the men's side, an amateur Japanese runner won the elite race and six of the top ten male finishers were also Americans. Pray for more another terrible weather day next year?

Starbuck's, loitering, and lynching. In an earlier era, the recent Starbuck's incident might have ended much differently. As the Starbuck's moment illustrates, even though the old loitering laws were long ago been struck down judicially, they are "still there." It is hard to believe that if two "white brothers" had entered Starbuck's to wait for their friends the police would have been called.
     Back in the day, loitering laws were a mainstay of the racist Jim Crow system. Being black and in the wrong place at the wrong time (especially if you were male) would most probably result in a call to police, sometimes with lethal consequences. On April 26th, "America's first lynching memorial will open in the 'Cradle of the Confederacy," Montgomery, Alabama.
     Columnist Fred Hiatt notes the different Montomerys portrayed (1) on the plaques in the city's Riverfront Park (traditional) and (2) the above noted National Memorial for Peace and Justice. He also notes, as have others, that West Germany and South Africa moved relatively quickly (though not painlessly) to confront the horrors of their past, here in the US "...we’ve hardly begun to grapple with ours — and so cannot yet get beyond it."
     Locally, Colorado was not immune, either. Most lynchings were in the early mining era, before a formal, territorial court system had been established. One particularly appalling incident occurred, twenty-four years after statehood, in Limon, (eastern) CO, in 1900, when a young African American was publicly burned at the stake. Other CO lynching victims included Catholics (Irish-American), Chinese, and Native Americans.

Yellowstone. Yes, it is our first National Park and, yes, it is potentially earth's deadliest volcanic area, and, yes, this potential black swan that is Yellowstone is 44 miles wide. The linked article has some interesting and informative embedded links. In any event, the park is spectacular and we all owe a debt of gratitude to President U.S. Grant, the park's "founder."

Syria. Here is conservative columnist, Michael Gerson's thoughts on the president's Syrian raid and policy. "High explosives do not constitute a Syria policy, which has been lacking across two administrations. So it might be more useful to ask a narrower question: What principle is the United States trying to enforce?" The answer he discerns from Washington is not comforting.

     There is...further inconsistency. The images of children after a chemical weapons attack seem to move the president. The images of 5 million refugee children — many out of school, many traumatized by violence and loss — seem to lack that power....Trump’s standard — that a dictator can indiscriminately kill his people as long as he doesn’t use chemical weapons — is nearly lost in the overarching lesson of the Syrian conflict.

2020, Candidate X. In last Wednesday's column, David Von Drehle opines about "who" might be on the long/short list in 2020 for the White House. They will, no doubt, ..."like Trump, promote themselves as personal brands, independent of party affiliation." He notes we often forget that both Obama and Trump rode to victory in spite of their party establishments.  He continues,

It’s no mere coincidence that these are the first two presidents of the iPhone era. Introduced in 2007, the pocket supercomputer (and its competitors) placed the power of mass communication literally in the hands of millions of ordinary Americans, and the business of winning votes would never be the same. As different as Trump and Obama are, both candidates appreciated that the road to the presidency is now a communications autobahn, bypassing the antiquated Main Streets of the run-down political parties.

     Run-down political parties? Back in the beginning, the Founding Fathers designed a "party-less" system where the president would "represent" everyone, senators their state, and representatives their immediate neighbors.  As political parties became part of the system in those slower, bygone days, policies were largely hammered out in the nation's capital by party members in the legislature, amid ongoing consultation with the executive branch. The realities of today's communications have changed all that!
     Party members are no longer beholden to the same groups of voters. Policy- making has been irreversibly splintered and the long term systemic consequences remain cloudy. President Trump fumbles with his "base," which he finds is shifting as his rapidly evolving/changing policies differently impact various groups/localities. Similarly, congressional party members deal with their own diverse/shifting bases. All of which are only a @ or # away. Von Drahle writes, "New media aren’t intended to grab and hold our entire attention, as the ratings-obsessed Trump [and others wish]..."

The liberal "world order." Jonathan Capehart's column discusses Robert Kagan's speech at the German Marshall Fund's recent meeting, where he spoke about the devolution of "the U.S.-led liberal democratic order" which Kagan says "is not only in danger — it’s also a historical aberration."

New Republican party. This article from the Economist examines how Donald Trump's Republican party is organized around him and is all about loyalty to him. Congress is merely an often unavoidable, inconvenient outlier. They point to a concern for "...Mr Trump’s temperament and style of government. Submissive loyalty to one man and the rage he both feeds off and incites is a threat to the shining democracy that the world has often taken as its example...At the heart of his system of power is his contempt for the truth."

First, policymaking suffers as, instead of a coherent programme, America undergoes government by impulse—anger, nativism, mercantilism—beyond the reach of empirical argument....Second, the conventions that buttress the constitution’s limits on the president have fallen victim to Mr Trump’s careless selfishness....[T]hird, Mr Trump paints those who stand in his way not as opponents, but as wicked or corrupt or traitors....Mindful of their party’s future, [Republican leaders] should remember that America’s growing racial diversity means that [Trump's] nativism will eventually lead to the electoral wilderness.
 
     Reflecting on the recent golfing-cum state visit by the Japanese premier, it might also be remembered that over the years allied foreign leaders would have been pleased to be invited to the White House, perhaps even to the more private, secluded presidential retreat at Camp David. (Either/both all made for good TV back home.) However, President Trump obviously wants foreign visitors to be enthralled with him, not the nation, and so he prefers his private golf-estate, Mar-a-lago -- where it is very obviously all about him and his wealth.

Poland, 2018. Who would have thought that the heretofore much maligned Soviet communist domination of Poland during the Cold War would come in handy for the current Polish government? This from the Economist. Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party (newly elected, populist, revisionist, and blatantly nativist) finds it convenient to label its current, more democratic-leaning detractors, as "treacherous crypto-communists." That seismic tremor you might have felt may well be Lech Walesa thundering towards the podium.

More about last week's note on the "new work model." Artificial-intelligence experts have goten a robot to assemble an IKEA flatpack—for the first time uniting the worlds of Allen keys and Alan Turing. As well as being able to relax in a nice new chair, the scientists have highlighted a profound truth about automation.
One late night TV comedian joked that the two robots, like many couples. did get into an argument about the process.
Foreign Policy? Columnist Eugene Robinson suggests that what emanates from Washington today might be better termed "international lurchings." He goes on, "Allies and adversaries alike are having to learn which pronouncements to take seriously, which to ignore and which are likely to be countermanded by presidential tweet....If the aim of foreign policy were to keep everybody guessing, Trump would be a smashing success."
     The world needs to acquaint itself with the useful Spanish phrase, "Quien sabe¿" Who knows?  And, perhaps, forget the usual, polite, "With all due respect..." Surely, in today's nuclear-armed world, uncertainty may not be a good thing.

North Korea. The headline from a recent Washington Post story, read,"North Korea says it will suspend nuclear and missile tests, shut down test site."
Let us hope that the upcoming meetings between the North and South and then Kim Jong Un and President Trump prove fruitful.

Welfare reform in Wisconsin. What happens when your old car, badly in need of repair, is supposedly worth more than $20,000.00? You may no longer qualify for welfare. Gotcha! Of course, you might try contacting to the Speaker of the US House, who lives in Janesville, WI.

Your car may harbor a potential hazard. This Washington Post article points to one potential hazard in the auto parked at your house -- the safety air bags which may have been manufactured by Takata. You can use this link, from the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, to check for ANY/ALL recalls affecting your car(s). The vehicle identification number (VIN) number is displayed on the driver's side of dashboard and is visible through the windshield. You can also use the NHTSA site to check the published safety ratings for a vehicle you may be considering.

Reading, non-fiction. On Grand Strategy, John Lewis Gaddis, Penguin, 2018. (Pulitzer prize recipient, biography, 2012, George Kennan: An American Life.) Professor Gaddis taught a grand strategy course at Yale with colleagues Charles Hill and Paul Kennedy. I was particularly drawn to Chapter 8, "The Greatest President," where he discusses John Quincy Adams and Abraham Lincoln. A chapter well worth the read.
 
Thank you for reading.



Tuesday, April 17, 2018

For this week: Optimist; Russian semantics; state of the States; free speech and the Holocaust; "new" work; Syria; sports and politics.
Optimist, 15 April.  Richard Overton is nearly 112 years-old, African American, and the nation's longest lived WW II vet, and perhaps the world's 3rd oldest man. Talking with a friend in Austin, he said he would like to visit the new Smithsonian African American History museum. His friend had just introduced Overton to "...billionaire entrepreneur and philanthropist Robert Smith, who [had] donated $20 million to the museum." Smith inquired, "What are you [and your friends] doing next weekend?" It was off on a private jet to Washington, D.C., for a private before-hours tour of the museum. Job well done, Mr. Smith.

Vozhd or just leader? What a difference the past makes! In Russian, vozhd translates to "leader," but, as columnist Fred Weir writes, for many Russians, the word still stirs  uneasy memories -- or, for younger Russians, leaned tales -- of Joseph Stalin and the past. Leader, tyrant, or both? In any event, the reference is not something Vladimir Putin seems to particularly relish, but something he readily understands and is increasingly not loath to embrace.

Good times, but poor states. According to the Economist article, in the midst of supposedly "good" economic news, many US states are experiencing tough economic times. Consider: 

 "...unemployment at a 17-year low...stock markets near all-time highs... 27 states revenues fall below expectations in 2017. Standard & Poor’s... downgraded over a dozen states since 2016... sluggish revenue growth... [a]ntiquated tax systems... services-led economy....[l]ow inflation...prices of services [up] 2.6% per year, [but]....sales-tax receipts [down] an annual rate of 0.4%..."

What is rotten in your state? Is it relying on those "rainy-day funds and other one-time gimmicks." Teachers in AZ, WV, and elsewhere are absolutely certain that their state legislators care little about raising taxes to increase revenue to improve their states' educational systems -- not to mention infrastructure, services, and/or salaries. Only in OK did the state "...pressured by striking public-school teachers...[vote] to raise taxes and fees in the state by $400m. It is the [OK’s] first tax rise in 28 years."

Kids, money and guns. It is ironic that students and their demands for change may be the new driving forces behind much needed changes in schools and school financing.

Fracking and $$$$. If your area has oil under the soil, you have no doubt been subjected to TV ads touting the lengths to which energy companies have gone to insure your safety. The ads feature neatly groomed, spotlessly clothed spokespersons (all wearing the required hard hats) walking and talking with supposed residents about.... well, you know, their company/industry's overriding concern for your safety.
     Have you not wanted to be there, to ask one simple question: "Would you like this fracking operation to located within 400 yards of your home?" Indeed, "Is there one of these operations even within sight/sound of your home?"

Hungary and illiberal democracy. Victor Orban won an unprecedented third term, capturing 67% of the parliamentary seats. He declared his "illiberal democracy" party firmly in control. His victory "...will doubtless deepen Hungary’s cultural and generational divide, widening the rift between liberal Budapest, which mostly voted against him, and the more traditional countryside. Doubtless, it will inspire nationalist demagogues in other parts of Europe, too." The situation now seems different from when I visited Budapest in 2006 during the 50th anniversary celebrations of the 1956 uprising.
     It gives one pause. Just what is an "illiberal" democracy? After all, this is Hungary, where, in 1956, citizens rose up and fought a valiant, albeit losing struggle, against a Soviet army which then reinstated a brutal dictatorship. In 1956, women emptied the cities' restaurant's kitchens, pouring the cooking oil down the city's hilly cobble stone streets, stranding Soviet tanks below, while others from the high ground poured gunfire and Molotov cocktails down hill.
     Re Orban's long range plans, this article from Foreign Policy. "Hungary’s leader used fearmongering propaganda to win. As he entrenches his power, the country’s democratic backsliding will get even worse."
     Today, you can visit the "House of Terror...located at Andrássy út 60 in Budapest, Hungary. It contains exhibits related to the fascist and communist regimes in 20th-century Hungary and is also a memorial to the victims of these regimes, including those detained, interrogated, tortured or killed in the building." The ÁVH (Hungary's Soviet-backed national security police) were among the most brutal in Eastern Europe.

Free Speech. Apparently more than a few young Americans do think speech that is offensive to minorities should be prohibited. Too tender ears???  

Holocaust. Younger Americans also appear ignorant about the Holocaust. Maggie Astor reports "[A] survey released Thursday, on Holocaust Remembrance Day, found that many adults lack basic knowledge of what happened — and this lack of knowledge is more pronounced among millennials, whom the survey defined as people ages 18 to 34." Even more disheartening, "Thirty-one percent of Americans, and 41 percent of millennials, believe that two million or fewer Jews were killed in the Holocaust; the actual number is around six million. Forty-one percent of Americans, and 66 percent of millennials, cannot say what Auschwitz was. And 52 percent of Americans wrongly think Hitler came to power through force." Back to the classroom, folks!

The "new" work. You might want to watch the "CBS Sunday Morning" (15 April) segment on the idea of a guaranteed minimum income and how work will change in the years ahead.

Syria. His campaign-era pronouncements not withstanding, with the latest military strikes against Syria, President Trump has thrown the "fat into the fire." Ann Applebaum notes, "Russia is lying about Syria. But Trump has no credibility to counter it." With his past tweets/statements, he has painted himself into the proverbial corner. Interestingly, he has placed his bets hoping the assistance of Britain, France, and UN will pull him through.
     Doubts remain about the actual attack and how much it did not "endanger" Russian facilities.

Politics and sports. Cassandra Casanova, a former rabid San Antonio Spur's fan, explains why Goodwill got all of her team paraphernalia. When the coach went public with his strident anti-Trump views, she deserted. Our president is nothing if not a lightening rod.

Thank you for reading. I hope your spring has begun in earnest.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

This week: the Optimist; continental divide; MLK, Jr. 50 years on; the Donald and Vladimir; Stormy, Donald, et. al.; China's 21st century Long March; pay equity; murder rates;

Optimist, 8 April.    Link here. A caring bus driver and her young friend, D.C.'s cherry blossoms, and more

A new continental divide. When I began teaching I was in CO, so I naturally challenged my students about the nation's two continental divides. The usual first comment: "Come on, Mr. Abell. There's only one, somewhere between here and Vail." or words to that effect. Having grown up in western PA, I leave it to you to divine how I introduced the concept of the other, the "eastern," continental divide, water going to the Mississippi or the Atlantic.
    News stories and photos early last week, introduced the idea of something quite different: a probable, literal, African continental divide opening somewhere along a giant rift that opened up in Kenya. Geologists are quick to point out that it may be 50+M years or so before East Africa separates from the remainder of the continent. No need to make hurried travel plans.

MLK, Jr. Among the many articles and columns published on 4 April is this somber remembrance by authors when he "...was harassed, dismissed and often saddened." Telling his wife, “I get tired of going and not having any answers.”
     Even as the anti-Vietnam movement grew, King found himself increasingly at odds with LBJ and dogged by J. Edgar Hoover's FBI. Nevertheless, he persevered  "...trying to confront “the evil triplets,” how 'racism, economic exploitation and militarism are all tied together.' ”







We are resolved to fight the bloody battle against our enemies, with a strong determination to take our place in the world....The list of co-optive behavior could go on. And the list of more coercive concerns gets longer by the day....The list of co-optive behavior could go on. And the list of more coercive concerns gets longer by the day.





Wednesday, April 4, 2018

For this week's consideration: the Optimist; whither coal?; gerrymandering; North Korea; the "war cabinet;" oil and climate change; census; teacher pay; ICE and kids;"free range" kids; gas mileage.

The Optimist, Easter Sunday and April Fools Day. More about Oliver and Linda Brown. Spring break for the "not so wealthy." Spring break time and many college students all over the US are working, not cavorting on the beaches. Year 'round work is a necessity for many students.

Coal -- miners and executives. In this High County News article, Gabriel Hunt, a fourth generation  miner turned aspiring artist, discusses what lies ahead for everyone associated with a shrinking. 19th century industry. "[T]he notion that we should tolerate and use taxpayer dollars to attempt to sustain a 19th century industry is a slap in the face to coal miners and communities here in Carbon County [UT] and beyond. We no longer need coal. What we do need is real economic prosperity." Prosperity that could be realized with UT's sunshine, geothermal sources, and wind. Link to the Governor's Office of Energy Development.
     UT legislators are preparing to sue CA on the grounds that CA's climate laws are unfair to coal producers. Hunt maintains this legal maneuvering amounts to little more than corporate welfare and "ignores the reality underlying our economic plight. The fact is, coal can no longer compete." With his family's long experience in mining, Hunt has seen everything about the coal industry deteriorate -- safety, pollution, environmental protection, drug abuse....
     Of course, President Trump, to much pep rally, campaign cheering, has vowed to make coal viable again. Alas, even the coal industry executives are investing, not in improvements in coal mining, but in alternative energy sources. "In a stunning rebuke in January, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected a proposal to subsidize electric utilities that use coal as unjust and unreasonable."

Gerrymandering, MD-style. Last week it was PA, this week MD, as the Supreme Court accepted a case involving that state's 2011 redistricting process. The former Democratic governor, Martin O'Malley unabashedly admitted it was a partisan exercise meant to increase the Democratic congressional majority from 6-2 to 7-1. Last Tuesday, the Supremes heard a case from WI involving purported political gerrymandering. After the upcoming 2020 census, states will do their required redistricting, so stay tuned.
     In last Thursday's column, E.J. Dionne allows as how MD's action amounts to outright, unadulterated cheating by the dominant political party.

Kim Jong Un. The huge, armored green train was hard to miss, as were the attendant armored motorcades in Beijing. Even in closely watched censored China, cell phone pictures sprouted quickly and speculation flowered. Only after North Korea's leader was back across the border was the nearly-secret visit officially announced. Given President Trump's recent pronouncements, the Chinese -- North Korean relationship is increasingly important and, despite the White House denials, complicates any North Korean -- US meeting.
    Columnist David Ignatius points out "...make no mistake: It is the two Koreas that are driving the action, forcing their superpower allies to respond." We well know how much President Trump dislikes not being in the driver's seat, or at least riding "shotgun." Hopefully, before the talks begin he will have a secretary of state and national security adviser on board.

David Ignatius and Trudy Rubin on John Bolton. Last week's blog noted George Will's decidedly worried thoughts on President Trump's newly designated national security adviser, who needs no senate confirmation. (Note: The former adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, required Senate confirmation due to his military rank.)
     This week, columnists Trudy Rubin (Philadelphia Inquirer) and the Washington Post's  David Ignatius weigh in. An important question: in advising the president, will Bolton be an "honest broker" or "provocateur, bureaucratic infighter and permanent enfant terrible." A bellicose president pared with a bellicose adviser?  Ignatius: "That scares people, at home and abroad....Bolton’s test as national security adviser is that he will now be the person responsible for overseeing a process he instinctively mistrusts." Rubin: "[T]he scariest thing about Bolton is this: His deep belief in military action will strengthen the president’s most macho instincts.
     A host of commentators, left and right, and of all stripes in both groups have noted that Trump tends to act on instinct and favors, in effect, "Yes" people.      Rubin: "Standing alone in the breach is Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, no wimp on using force, but a believer in trying all other options first. But Mattis is now bereft of cabinet allies...We are about to see the real Donald Trump, unchained, in the foreign-policy arena..."

Oil and climate change. In federal district court, San Francisco and Oakland are asking that 5 major oil companies be held "accountable for local consequences of climate change."Arguments in a nut shell:
     Plaintiffs. “[These companies] engaged in large-scale, sophisticated advertising and public relations campaigns to promote pervasive fossil fuel usage and to portray fossil fuels as environmentally responsible and essential to human well-being.”
     Defendants. "[I]t’s nearly impossible to tie specific climate impacts like sea level rise to specific causes, such as the production or burning of Chevron oil."
    Chevron argued its case and the judge instructed the other 4 companies to file documents, saying, “You can’t get away with sitting here in silence,” Other civil suits akin to this one have been dismissed, but some are still pending. Get in line!

Census, 2020. Sometimes it only takes one simple question to gum up the works. The Trump administration wants to add a question to the upcoming census, one which amounts to "Are you a US citizen?" which is supposedly included to better enforce the Voting Rights Act. The census is meant to count the entire population, not just citizens. But, if you an undocumented resident or a DACCA recipient and distrust the government, you may just "forget" and try skip the entire process, though you are legally required to fill out the forms you receive.
     There is the Census and the American Community Survey. Here is a link explaining the differences.

KY and OK teachers, following example of their WV counterparts, have closed down their state's public schools over changes to their pension system made by the KY legislature. The changes would have "worked against" new teachers. It is increasingly obvious that US students are falling further and further behind those of other nations. Education Secretary Voss and her charter school mentalit, not withstanding, there is no substitute for better and better-paid teachers. Link to story of similar teacher concerns in OK.

ICE and kids. Op ed writer, Jack Markell asks, "Do we really want 16 million children without parents?" (Markell, D, DE and former governor, 2009-2017) "The Trump administration is preparing to threaten the well-being of 16 million U.S. citizens who live with their immigrant parents...[A] series of new proposals...could make it more difficult for parents to stay in the United States legally — and, even if they remained here, would reduce the likelihood that those parents would avail themselves of the services designed to keep their children healthy." Is this what America has become?

Free range eggs -- kids, too? Should your child be supervised by an adult 24/7? Not in UT, which recently passed a so called "free range" kid law that is being much debated across the country; this vs. the now more common "helicopter parent." Remember the wonderful coming of age film "Sand Lot?" That unsupervised, neighborhood "we're here to have fun baseball team?" With James Earl Jones as the unknown baseball legend whose back yard harbored that huge, slobbering dog that "collected" the kids' over the fence foul balls? Has UT saved sandlot sports?

EPA and auto pollution. Uncontested facts: more people, more cars, more miles driven, more auto emissions, more pollution. Yet, the "Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt announced Monday that he would revoke Obama-era standards requiring cars and light trucks sold in the United States to average more than 50 miles per gallon by 2025..." Since Administrator Pruitt does not believe earth's climate is changing or, at least if it is, human-kind plays no part, what is the harm of some more auto emissions?
     A national dust up is assuredly in the making; this is federalism at work. "California has authority under the Clean Air Act to set its own emissions limits, and it has threatened to sue if its waiver is revoked and it is blocked from imposing stricter targets. Such a fight has broad implications, because 12 other states, representing more than a third of the country’s auto market, follow California’s standards." 

Thank you for reading.