Goodwillwrites@yahoo.com

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

This week's musings: the Optimist; improbable events; happy places; fact vs. fiction; more unintended consequences; a Democrat - Socialist victory in NY; civility and the social fabric; immigration; Iran; after populism?; the Supreme Court after Kennedy's retirement; immigrant detainees; Estonia.

Optimist, 1 July. This week's link. New drivers on the road.
     In Saudi Arabia it is not more males, but any old-enough woman who has taken and passed her driving test. Can the first female driving instructor be far away? Or is that just too radical?
     That long-lost sister you have been searching for over the years. However improbably, she turns out to be your new next-door neighbor.
     There was this elderly grandmotherly gambler next door -- the one who left me $50,000 in her will. How her money changed my life.

Other improbable events. The 11 World Cup venues in Russia have provided a continuous stream of "Would you believe?" Some soccer powerhouses ousted, other not-likely teams advanced. The losing Japanese team (Belgium 3 - Japan 2) and their fans set a very unusual example for a sport, too often in the news for the hooliganism in the stands. Japanese fans cleared trash from the entire stadium; the Japanese team left their lock room spotlessly clean and included a "Thank You" sign for their Russian hosts -- in the Cyrillic alphabet.

Happiness, heart, home. This Atlantic article talks about what "happy places" have in common. Krishnadev Calamur begins, "The happiest places in the world are those where enlightened leaders shifted their focus from economic development to promoting quality of life." Unfortunately, this does not always describe the United States with President Trump at the helm.
     Last week I blogged about Our Towns by James and Deborah Fallows. Like Mr. Calamur, they, too, found that those towns succeeding in "coming back" were most often led by insightful residents willing to take what was at hand to remold the town.

Fake news? A recent survey by the PEW Research Center investigated how well Americans separated fact from fiction. Among the factors were respondents' political awareness, party identification, trust in sources, technological expertise.

A dying U.N.? This Foreign Policy article surveys what happens to the U.N. as the US retreats from the world stage. Perhaps to the chaotic post-WW I world that existed before President Wilson's attempt at a League of Nations?
     "As the United States retreats from the world, Moscow and Beijing seek to gut U.N. programs, cut staff."  Especially, those U.N. organizations primarily tasked with overseeing human rights matters.

Wither the Democratic party? Does the very unexpected victory of 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the young, democratic-socialist candidate in NY's 14th congressional district, herald a new era for the Democratic party? If elected, Ms. Ocasion-Cortez would become the youngest member of the House. Her victory immediately upended the party's leadership ladder --  the defeated Joseph Crowley was the fourth-ranking Democrat. Her youth also could not help but spotlight the advanced ages the ranking Democrats: minority leader, Nancy Pelosi (78) and minority whip, Stenny Hoyer (79). Obviously, Ocasio-Cortez's youth will provide a "talking point" for her Republican opponent.
     For the record: Rep. Crowley raised/spent $1.2M+; Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, approximately $127,000. Apparently, Crowley's twenty-year House tenure and money counted for little.

The social covenant. Here are the thoughts of an African American columnist, the Miami Herald's Leonard Pitts, on what he thinks holds a society together. It is more than mere civility.

Immigration. David Nakamura wonders if the decision in will embolden the president to attempt to make further changes to the nation's immigration laws. Will his narcissistic bent mean he will claim victory and press on with executive actions to ban immigrants deemed "dangerous," "harmful," "unworthy?"
     “Who’s going to be next?” asked Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), whose state brought the case against the travel ban. “Is the president going to issue an executive order against Mexicans? Is he going to issue an executive order against people from Honduras? Guatemala?"
     As to new, re-vamped legislation, too many congressional Republicans fear bucking Trump and the Democrats see this as an issue they can use to recapture the House in 2018. Meanwhile, three young Yemeni children and their mother wonder when, if ever, they will be able to emigrate and join their American father. Or, like their grandmother, will they die while waiting?

Iran.  The assessment of US military capabilities/liabilities in this article is sobering, to say the least. It's opening thoughts about Mattis's growing distance from the president's inner-circle is also very troubling. The president's civilian inner-circle, especially national security advisor Bolton, have not a clue about our military's true readiness, how truly tired and stretched our forces are. (e.g. that 30% of all USAF fighter aircraft are not "mission capable;" that the US armed forces have been on a virtual war-footing since 9/11.)

Greek populism. What comes after populism? Long-time foreign affairs columnist Anne Applebaum thinks that the Greeks may offer some glimpses and it is not a pretty picture. One Greek academic she talked with feared the worst.
"[He] told me he feared Greece would crash out of the euro currency overnight, that there would be no money in the banks in the morning, that there would be food shortages and then riots: “Greece is a middle-class country,” he told me. “I didn’t think we would be able to cope with the shock.” Several others told me that they had genuinely expected the arrival of a Venezuelan-style dictatorship, perhaps with tanks on the street....Greece was governed then — as it still is now — by a strange coalition of far-left and far-right extreme populists. At the time it was formed, this coalition seemed just as weird and jarring as the new Italian far-left and far-right government does today....Greece was governed then — as it still is now — by a strange coalition of far-left and far-right extreme populists. At the time it was formed, this coalition seemed just as weird and jarring as the new Italian far-left and far-right government does today....[However, the return to normalcy] also triggered the opposite reaction: a small but growing attempt to revive economic liberalism, for the first time in recent memory, and to celebrate liberal democracy as well."
New Supreme Court. For a look at a "long-term" conservative's view, this column by David Von Drehle is instructive. Liberals and progressives are viewing President Trump's list of "potential greats" in terms of the future justice's views on abortion and gay rights. Looming, too, is the past actions by Republicans actions to block President Obama's choice until after the 2016 election.
     Now, as a former colleague liked to say, "It's intuitively obvious to the most casual observer," that the Senate Republicans want to rush through Trump's choice before the 2018 election, in case they loose control of the Senate.

Immigrants, America. Unanswered questions: where, how long, families together?  Even the administration is not always sure and some in various government departments are uneasy with the lack of a definitive plan of action. Certainly Justice, ICE and Homeland Security are between a rock and a hard spot. But, what did they expect? That immigrants and their advocates were going to be quiet as families were separated and children shipped off?

Estonia. This small Baltic nation has quietly become one of the most dynamic and forward thinking EU members. The US ambassador, James D. Melville, Jr., is a 33-year foreign service veteran (6 presidents, 11 secretaries of state).  Melville announced he is resigning 29 July, saying, “For the President to say the EU was ‘set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank,’ or that ‘NATO is as bad as NAFTA’ is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it’s time to go..." 
     Melville's resignation may well have an impact at the upcoming NATO meeting, 11 & 12 July. Amid continuing discord between Chancellor Merkel and President Trump, it has again been rumored that he is considering removing our forces from Germany. Any resulting unrest in the Baltic and NATO will be welcomed in Moscow. President Trump is currently scheduled to meet with Putin immediately after the NATO meeting.

Thank you for reading. I hope your 4th of July was grand!

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